MTT "1/2 Life" Theory

I have several friends who play mostly home games and our small live tourneys who have asked me how long it takes to play some of these huge MTT’s on-line. I told them that for any MTT of 1,000 or more plan on about 4.5 hours. They asked 4.5 hours per thousand? I said no, about 4.5 hours for 1,000, 2,000, 5,000 or more.

My theory goes something like this; during the first hour you will lose between 50-65% of the players, same thing with the second hour. From the third hour on, you will lose between 65-75% of the players. By midway through hour four, the blinds and antes are so huge, it is very difficult to keep your M above 10, so there tends to be quite a bit more pushing with marginal hands so you do not get blinded out.

As a note, I play mostly low limit tourneys on-line (i.e. buy-ins of $20 or less, fees not included). For those of you who play higher limits does this hold true? For that matter, what do you think of this theory for the low limit tourneys; does this seem about right to you?

I also caution them about the first hour. I guesstimate that on average, at least one person per table will push during the first orbit. I remember getting KK on the third hand of a tourney so I made a standard raise of 4x BB for a total of 80 and the guy to my left did his math (80+20+10=110) and figured it was time to push. He did get two callers but I decided to fold. The first pusher had JJ, the second AQo, and the last one had 77. I don’t remember which one hit, it was either a J or a Q, but just like that we lost two players. Our new chip leader did not last to the end of the first hour and was quite generous with his chips. Nothing worse to me than getting an excellent hand during the first 15 min of play cause it seems like any raise will get someone to push, and that monkey will have 86 soooooted and inevitably catch their two pair to take it down. Make it past hour one and then you can start playing some cards.

Now do yourself a favor and go visit a beautiful poem, or ode by AlCantHang, it brought a tear to my eye as I'm sure it will to yours as well.